Analyzing Current and Future Suitable Climate Envelopes for Mountain Hemlock
In this project my group used a suite of twenty four climate variables to determine what factors are most important in defining the ideal climate conditions and growth range of Tsuga mertensiana (Mountain hemlock). We then used a future projection of those significant variables to assess how the extent of the ideal Mountain hemlock climate envelope would change over the next 60 years.
We developed an algorithm to determine which climate variables were most unique to the current growth range of Mountain hemlock and thus best suited to predicting where it would grow both now and in the future. Future climate data was based on an ensemble of climate models using A1B (moderate) emissions assumptions.
Custom Modelbuilder tools were created for both pre-processing and analysis portions of this project and helped to speed along the repetitive nature of tasks that needed to be duplicated for all 24 climate variables (48, including both the past and future data sets).
Our analysis predicts that the ideal climate envelope for Mountain hemlock will shift dramatically over time. Only ~40% of the current area of ideal climate envelope is projected to remain intact, while 56% of the area shifts from its predominantly coastal distribution to move significantly inland, northwards, and to higher elevation. Overall, the ideal climate envelope area is projected to decrease by 4% by the 2080s, according to our model.
HarnickHaugawoutWilmerdingWysong_ENVS420_FinalProject.pdf